Baseball Intellect Newsletter
The No. 15 Prospects of the AL WestMichael Kohn | Los Angeles Angels | RHP | Age - 23
Michael Kohn has posted outstanding strikeout rates since he entered the Angels organization in 2008. Over three levels, Kohn has posted a K% of 47.3, 42.9, and 39.8 percent, respectively. In addition, opposing hitters have struggled to center the ball against him. Kohn has never allowed a BABIP against of greater than .297 and he's only given up two homeruns in his pro career.
How does Kohn miss so many ABs? It's because of a plus fastball with excellent life that is complimented by a great degree of deception. The deception comes from an extremely short arm action.
Kohn's wind-up is sneaky slow to start, but his arm is remarkably quick. Below you can see Kohn going against Brewers top prospect Brett Lawrie. Lawrie is unable to catch up on Kohn's high fastball, which is often the norm for hitters going up against Kohn and I'll tell you why.
Typically a pitcher breaks their hands and they go through some sort of motion and you eventually see the pitcher's arm arrive to the vertical position. When Kohn breaks his hands and goes into his motion, he does a few things differently:
1. He reverse rotates his shoulders...helps him hide the ball and probably helps him get a little more force applied to the ball.
2. He doesn't open up until very late in the process...in fact, you could argue he never opens up period. The front shoulder stays closed throughout the delivery, more closed than you typically see because of the reverse rotation of his shoulders.
3. You never really see the arm go to vertical. Just before planting, Kohn whips his arm rather violently and as a result, Kohn's arm essentially passes through vertical and into external rotation. Combined that with the short path Kohn's arm takes from hand break to vertical, hitters struggle to pick up the ball out of Kohn's hands. That's why hitters are late to react on Kohn's fastball. They don't see it until it's too late.
This deception helps Kohn's breaking ball play up because hitters are geared up for something hard, knowing they need to swing a little earlier than they'd like.
Kohn is not without weakness. Because he stays so closed, there are times when he's unable to "get around" his front side. When this happens, the ball sails on him. At times, Kohn will overcompensate in an effort to reach the outside corner of the glove hand side of the plate.
Kohn generally doesn't have a problem throwing strikes, but he needs to work on improving his command. He also can get caught overthrowing, which causes him to lose the strike zone.
Lastly, we often hear deception isn't as effective against higher level hitters. This is true and it's a reason why Kohn's K-rates will drop. That being said, Kohn gets by on more than deception. If he can throw strikes and become more consistent with his curveball, Kohn can develop into a very good big league reliever.
Anthony Capra | Oakland Athletics | LHP | Age - 23
Anthony Capra doesn't jump out at you physically, but his repertoire of pitches is solid. It's headlined by a plus change-up that has allowed him to miss plenty of bats thus far in his young pro career.
Capra doesn't have an overpowering fastball, sitting in the 88 - 91 range, but he can get it up to 93 in shorter stints. His curveball flashes average potential, but it's inconsistent and will often times come out flat.
Capra has pretty good command to both sides of the plate, but he's not exactly precise. I'd like to see him get the walks down. One thing about Capra is that he's an extreme fly ball pitcher, so homeruns will always be an issue with him though playing in Oakland will certainly help.
Capra is a potential No. 5 starter at the big league level, but a more likely role will probably out of the bullpen.
Dennis Raben | Seattle Mariners | OF/1b | B - L | Age - 22
It's easy to forget about Dennis Raben since he missed the entire 2009 season with a torn ACL, but lest we forget that Raben was a 2nd round pick that performed very well in his brief pro debut.
Raben is a strong hitter with good, but not great bat speed. He's very selective at the plate and has a sound approach, but could still use some fine tuning on his pitch recognition.
Raben isn't a great defender, but he's capable in right field with a strong arm. However, that was before his injury. We need to see how good his mobility is once he's fully recovered. A move to first base isn't out of the question in the near future.
Braden Tullis | Texas Rangers | RHP | Age - 20
Braden Tullis is a muscular, projectable, and athletic pitcher from Boise, Idaho...reminds me of Rick Helling physically.
Tullis features a heavy 89 - 92 mph fastball with both run and sink as well as a slider and change-up.
The slider will flash above average potential with a tight, two-plane break, but you can tell Tullis is still getting a feel for the pitch. At this point, his success rate with the pitch is pretty low.
The change-up is a better secondary pitch for Tullis at the moment. The pitch has good sink and fade and Tullis generally showed an ability to keep fastball arm speed. Like the slider, it was inconsistent at times, but the success rate was higher.
Tullis showed good control in his first go round of pro ball. He throws his fastball for strikes, though I'd like to see better command. He could stand to improve both the control and command of his secondary offerings. Below is Tullis throwing one of the better sliders he threw all day:
Tullis' has excellent arm strength and gets tremendous whip on his arm action. He scap loads well, but I'd like to see him get better use out of his body as he's a little too tall-and-fall for my taste. His mechanics are a little bit stiff as well, which I don't think you can pick up in the graphic above, but you can see it more in full speed.
Next up will be the No. 15 prospects of the NL East. Quick Take on Scott Kazmir and the Prospects Traded for His ServicesA little late of course, but I recently got a question about the Scott Kazmir deal, specifically Kazmir's mechanics and the prospects involved. My response (edited slightly)...
Kazmir's velocity is up a bit from where it was earlier in the season, but he's still a risk because of past injury and consistency concerns. He's also expensive and a team like the Rays who have a roster that is about to get a bit more expensive needed to clear some salary. However, he's still young and when he's going good, he's a potential front of the rotation starter.
From what I noticed on video, his mechanics with Tampa were inconsistent and his overall timing had been off for much of the year. He did work with former Mets pitching coach Rick Peterson and it's apparently paid dividends, but I haven't looked specifically at what Peterson did with Kazmir. That's maybe a topic for another day.
For Tampa, I think they got a real solid return. Big fan of Matt Sweeney. Real pretty swing and you can see some quick twitch action in Sweeney's wrists as he accelerates his bat through the zone. He's an injury risk, but a really good talent nevertheless. Alex Torres is intriguing because of his ability to miss bats, but he has spotty command....he looks more like a future reliever. Sean Rodriguez is a good fit because of his versatility...he's a super utility guy that can play almost anywhere and has some pop as well.
Plus, it needs to be noted that the Rays have a lot of pitching depth with Wade Davis replacing Kazmir and Jeremy Hellickson on the cusp of being major league ready. So when you take that into account, I think the Rays did real well. The Angels -- as long as Kazmir pitches as he's capable of -- got a really talented pitcher for the stretch run and two more years after that. It's a fair deal though I do give the Rays the edge.
The Cavalry is Coming...It's been a long 12 years for Orioles fans, but it's true...the cavalry is coming. We've seen young hitters like Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Nolan Reimold reach and succeed at the big league level. Matt Wieters is making adjustments and the young pitching depth that the Orioles have accumulated over the years has began to show itself in the form of Brad Bergesen and David Hernandez. What we haven't seen yet is the appearance of one of the Big Three at the MLB level, but that will change on Wednesday against the Kansas City Royals as Chris Tillman is set to make his MLB debut.
I want to take a brief look at what makes Chris Tillman one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. It's a true 12-to-6 hammer curve that borders on plus-plus potential.
Before we do that, it's important to note the other things he does well...
For instance, his command/control have made huge strides this year. He's had a much easier time locating his fastball and keeping it down in the zone. The pitch also runs away from lefties. The change-up has also made major strides this season, showing much more consistency than before.
But what brings it all together is that hammer curve. He can throw it for strikes, buckling the knees of hitters in the process or he can plant it in the dirt, often inducing swings-and-misses.
The pitch looks very much like a fastball coming out of his hand and will often times come in on the same plane as his fastball, especially when he throws it with the intent of getting the hitter to swing-and-miss at the pitch as you can see below:
The AL East is going to be brutally tough the next couple years. Brian Matusz and Tillman both possess front of the rotation starter upsides, while Jake Arrieta is viewed by most as a No. 3 starter with the potential to reach No. 2 starter status.
Scouting Phillies Pitching Prospect Mike Stutes
Mike Stutes, a 9th round pick by the St. Louis Cardinals in 2007 fell to the 11th round in 2008 because of a poor senior year in college where he posted a 5.34 ERA to go with a HR-rate of around 1.2. Stutes had three major issues...a lack of fastball command, a lack of pitchability, and an over reliance on his slider.
From what I've seen from Stutes, he's got good stuff. His fastball sits in the 91 - 93 range, up a couple of mph's from his junior season in college. The pitch features good life, with both a slight tailing and sinking action. His low 80's slider has above average potential with a sharp, late break at times and he's done a better job of relying on it less, while mixing in all his pitches.
Stutes also has a slurvy curveball that will show good bite at times and his change-up is a developing, but below average offering with average potential.
For Stutes, it's a matter of consistency...as in, he doesn't have it. It's something that plagued him all four years at Oregon State and this year as well. It's not so much a consistency issue with his stuff, but it's more about his control and command. He's often too fine with his pitches, leading to an accumulation of walks. There will also be times when he does find the strike zone, but it's not in his desired spot, leading to some hard hit balls off the bats of hitters.
Mechanics
Stutes is a good athlete and does a solid job of repeating his delivery though he's got a lot of moving parts to his wind-up. He uses an exaggerated shoulder tilt, which allows him to lead with his hips while adding some deception to his pitches.
Like Jason Knapp, Stutes has "Inverted-W" or "M" arm action. There is no scientific study stating whether the Inverted arm action is a direct cause of injury, but there is some coorelation. My personal theory is that the inverted arm action causes a more forceful rotation because it delays the rotation of the shoulder. The delay may help with velocity, but it potentially increases stress on the shoulder. Some pitchers it works for, others it doesn't.
It's important to note that the elbow going above the shoulder in itself is not injurious, but it's the period it's up there. With Stutes, while it seems he gets the elbow back down to below shoulder level before the point of maximum stress on the shoulder, the timing is still borderline.
Stutes got off to a nice start this season, but he's been scuffling for much of May and June as his strikeouts and ground balls have decreased and his walks have increased. Stutes' ERA has risen in each successive month.
Stutes has been at his best during his first three innings of work and has shown a significant lefty/righty split this year:
vs. RH - 7.30 K/9, 3.32 W/9, .44 HR/9 vs. LH - 5.97 K/9, 5.34 W/9, 2.20 HR/9
Because of the shortcomings exhibited by Stutes, along with his consistency issues, that makes the bullpen the ideal place for Stutes at the major league level.
Best Case Outcome - Quality middle reliever out of the bullpen though he does have an outside shot to make it as a back of the rotation starter.
More Likely Outcome - Swing man or long reliever The No. 15 Prospects of the AL EastBaltimore Orioles - Kam Mickolio | RHP | Triple-A Norfolk | Age - 24 | Drafted - Round 18, 2006Mickolio is an intimidating 6-foot-9, 250+ pound pitcher with a heavy mid-90's fastball and a hard late breaking slider. His curve and change-up are below average offerings and his slider is inconsistent. Mickolio uses his fastball and downhill plane to induce a high percentage of ground balls. He also misses plenty of bats. The thing holding Mickolio back is a lack of command. His delivery is deceptive, with a cross-body motion that makes it difficult for hitters to pick up the ball out of his hand, but it's a reason he also struggles with his command and I'm sure it adds to his potential risk of injury.
Grade - C+ Boston Red Sox - Oscar Tejeda | SS/3b | B - R | Greenville (A) | Age - 19 | Signed - Dominican Republic, 2006Tejeda is still extremely raw at this point, but you have to consider his age. He wasn't overmatched by any means but he doesn't generate much hard contact and his power is still almost nil. He also struggles with offspeed stuff.
Tejeda's swing reminds me a bit of Melving Mora's swing except Tejeda's leg kick is shorter and he pauses at the pinnacle of his leg kick instead of drifting through. However, like Mora he plants hard and sweeps the bat through the zone, though he occasionally gets too far out on his front side. You can see in the clip below Tejeda also maintains a short stroke.
Tejeda is a defensively versatile player with the ability to play all over the diamond and the outfield as well. In hindsight, I probably rated Tejeda a little too low on this list considering how young he is.
Grade - C+
A reader asked me to profile Red Sox draft pick Derrick Gibson's swing. Here's the swing:
And my thoughts: I think he'll have to make adjustments in the future if he wants to hit for any semblance of power. His hips open too soon, his loading of the hands is very small, and he lets his hands get way too out in front. He showed a knowledge of the strike zone in his first professional season and I don't think he'll have problems making contact, but power will be problem going forward if adjustments aren't made.
New York Yankees - Wilkins De La Rosa | LHP | A+ Tampa | Age - 24 | Signed - Dominican Republic, 2001 A bit older for a prospect, de la Rosa has an excuse: he was an outfielder through the 2006 season. After a disastrous showing in that 06' season, de la Rosa made the switch to pitcher and the transition has gone as good as anybody could have hoped. He worked as both a reliever and starter last season. While he missed more bats as a reliever, his control improved significantly when he was moved into a starter's role. De la Rosa pumps his fastball between 92 and 94 mph and really took to throwing a change-up, which is still developing but projects as a potential above average offering. De la Rosa is working on a curveball, but that pitch is extremely raw at this point.
Grade - C+
I also want to discuss Yankees prospect Brandon Laird, who I think profiles as a solid sleeper candidate. After a successful season in GCL, the Yankees aggressively moved Laird ahead two levels into full season ball and he handled the adjustments with ease. He more than doubled his BB%, while his K% increased just slightly. His power--in a pitcher's league--remained roughly the same with a .225 ISO-power. Laird only hit .273, but this was in part due to a low .293 BABIP despite a higher LD% than the previous year in which he had a .366 BABIP. He's not a more highly rated player because he profiles as a first baseman though he's played third base in the past.
Gorgen proved to be unhittable in short-season Hudson Valley. He struck out close to half of the batters he faced (43.2%) and limited hitters to a meager .132 BABIP against, which comes out to a staggering .097 batting average against. He gave up two home runs on the year and generated a GB% of 63.
Gorgen has a low 90's fastball with plenty of life, a mid-80's cutter that moves away from right handed hitters, and a power curveball that comes in on a similar plane as his fastball, but needs to do a better job of throwing for strikes. You can see below how Gorgen's mechanics are indistinguishable when throwing his breaking ball (right) or fastball (left). He's going head-to-head against Mets first round pick Reese Havens:
Gorgen brings a lot of positive things to the table from a mechanics perspective. He is extremely quick to the plate, with a tempo coming out around 20 or 21 frames. He drifts through his balance point, which I've explained the benefits of before. Gorgen's arm is out of the glove and into release almost immediately. His arm is extremely quick and pitcher's with quick arms are usually tougher to pick up. Hitters are consistently late on his fastball. Is his arm action somewhat unorthodox? Yes, and sure...unorthodox sometimes means risky, but it works for him.
Now, Gorgen will need to have better command of his pitches as he reaches higher levels. He'll often find the strike zone, but miss his spots. Gorgen is a little more valuable than your typical reliever because he has the mentality to handle the ups-and-downs of closing.
Grade - C+
Toronto Blue Jays - Brian Jeroloman | C | B - L | Triple-A Syracuse | Age - 23 | Drafted - Round 6, 2006
Jeroloman is anything but flashy. He takes pitches, walks a ton, and doesn't strike out too much. He's not a guy who can rake because he has just average bat speed, but he hits a lot of line drives, uses the whole field, and he nearly doubled his power output from a year ago. Jeroloman is known more for his defensive ability. His game calling and blocking skills are pretty solid and his arm grades out fairly well. He caught 30% of all base stealers last year. Jeroloman should find a nice career as a back-up catcher. The best case outcome for Jeroloman would be a Greg Zaun type career.
Grade - C
This wraps up the AL East. We will take out top list on to the NL Central...
The No. 15 Prospects of the NL West
Arizona Diamondbacks - Josh Whitesell | 1b | B - L | Triple-A Tucson | Age - 27 | Drafted - Round 6, 2003
An older prospect, but he put up big numbers in Triple-A Tucson..his inclusion at this spot gives you an indication of how Arizona's depth has taken a major hit in the past two seasons....would have more value to an AL team...good power with muscular build...long swing that leads to a very high K% (24+)...shows good patience at the plate as evidenced by his high BB%...struggles with good breaking balls...he could be the left hand side of a platoon at first base or DH because he hits RHP much better than LHP.
Grade - C Colorado Rockies - Connor Graham | RHP | Single-A Ashville | Age - 23 | Drafted - Round 5, 2007 Graham has MLB-quality stuff. But he has two major red flags against him: terrible control and no third pitch. That doesn't translate well to higher levels of competition. If he wants to remain a starter, he will need to improve his 13.7 BB% substantially. He will also have to come up with a more usable third pitch to complement his sinking, 92 - 95 mph fastball and his power curve. On the plus side, Graham produces some decent GB rates, misses a healthy amount of bats, and can be effectively wild as he can be tough to center the ball against. Below is a thing of the norm for Graham. You see the quality of his stuff, but he just can't locate it. In this particular instance, the batter (Buster Posey) never lifted the bat off his shoulder. 
Grade - C Los Angeles Dodgers - Jaime Pedroza | SS/2b | B - R | A+ Inland Empire | Age - 22 | Drafted - Round 9, 2007 Pedroz's value is mostly tied into his position. He's got some pop and possesses good bat speed, but he strikes out often and doesn't walk much. Pedroza swings hard and when he makes contact, it is usually of the hard variety. Pedroza has just average speed and his range is questionable at shortstop, so most expect him to move to second base, but he will still have value as a middle infielder. Pedroza's ultimately viewed as a utility player down the road. Grade - C San Diego Padres - Jeremy Hefner | RHP | Single-A Fort Wayne | Age - 23 | Drafted - Round 5, 2007 Hefner is a tall, athletic pitcher that has good peripherals, but has less than great stuff. His main strength is his feel for pitching. He changes speeds well and keeps hitters off balance, which helped him strike out 25.4 percent of the batters he's faced in Single-A Fort Wayne. Like most pitchers in the Padres organization, he gets many of his outs through the air. I prefer ground ball pitchers, but being a fly ball pitcher isn't necessarily a bad thing especially when you consider the park San Diego plays in. Hefner features a low 90's fastball, a developing change-up, and the organization has decided to turn what was once his slider into a curveball (http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081028&content_id=3651496&c_id=sd&vkey=news_sd). The curveball is slower than the slider and the Padres' brass feels the change in speeds would be a better complement for Hefner. He can throw all three pitches for strikes though his control was somewhat fair last year. Mechanically, Hefner doesn't particularly stand out. His front side mechanics are good, but his arm action is a somewhat long. Hefner is a potential back of the rotation starter. Grade - C+ As I mentioned in the Padres top-15 list, I wanted to take a quick look at Steve Garrison and James Darnell. First on Garrison: Steve Garrison also applies as a C+ prospect, but his stock plummeted after he had to undergo rotator cuff surgery in October. It's still questionable what kind of stuff Garrison will have when he comes back though the recovery rates have been better in recent years. Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus states a torn labrum is worse than a rotator cuff tear, which is worse than a SLAP tear. Darnell has a lot of raw power, but his swing is long. Below I slow down the frames where the swing gets long and pause the clip at it's longest point. The bat simply has to cover a ton of distance, and because of this, Darnell has to start his swing early. He'll need to make it shorter going forward. 
San Francisco Giants - Brandon Crawford | SS | B - L | AZL (Rookie) | Age - 22 | Drafted - Round 4, 2008 Crawford looks like an intriguing player. He's a shortstop with some pop and patience. But there are some major red flags. I'm not sure of the exact number, but I don't think the success rate of players with significantly more strikeouts than walks is good, especially when that player has no other plus skill. Crawford struggles to make contact mainly because he struggled to center the ball last year as well as failing to recognize off-speed stuff. He would often get too far out in front. His swing is also a little armsy as he doesn't use his lower as efficiently as he could. 
Defensively, he lost a little bit of range a year ago, but it still rates as above average. He has good hands, fields what he gets to, and a strong arm. He's not a good guy to take a chance on because it could be he just had a off year in 2008, but I would say his chance at success at the MLB level is small unless he shows an improved ability to make contact.
Grade - C
That's it for the NL West. The Newsletter will next return to wrap up the AL East.
A Follow-Up on Neil RamirezThere was a comment on my Neil Ramirez article that wondered about possible selection bias when doing video analysis and injury risk factors. I was also able to get my hands on some video of Ramirez this year and assess some of the adjusts already made by the Rangers organization.
First, selection bias - this is obviously part of the limitations of using video, but I do my best to take a pitch representative of what the pitcher usually throws...unless I try to make a point about the problems a pitcher exhibits. The fastball was typical for Ramirez. The curveball was among his better one's thrown. His motion is similar for each pitch type. Personally, I'm not big on predicting injuries. I just take note of the risk factors involved. I collected clips from most of the 30+ pitchers who had either a torn labrum or rotator cuff and there was no single mechanical attribute that showed up in each pitcher, or even a majority of the pitchers. You had pitchers with a wide variety of mechanics and arm actions. It's easy to take a few pictures of injury prone pitchers with similar mechanics and make it appear a high percentage of pitchers with those mechanics get injured. But that's not really the case.
As for the changes to his motion, there were some adjustments made.
1. He brings the arms over his head. If he's comfortable with it, that's fine though it is another part to coordinate in his wind-up.
2. They have slowed him down some. He's not drifting as much through the balance point as he was once. That's fine if it helps his control, but his control was obviously not good this past year.
3. They are apparently working with him to keep his elbow below the shoulder, but he still exhibited the high elbow.
4. There were times Ramirez would rush through his wind-up, forcing his arm to play catch-up, which would hurt his control.
5. Ramirez's curveball was inconsistent but was certainly a plus pitch at its best.
6. Overall, his stuff was certainly of a high quality but obviously he needs to become more consistent with his mechanics and improve on his control.
Conor Gillaspie vs. Nick NoonanAfter I published my draft review that included Conor Gillaspie, I was asked to compare him with Nick Noonan who was the 32nd overall pick by the Giants. Here was my response:
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