You can see from the charts above (originally on Techrunch) that Facebook is getting stronger and stronger as an advertising platform. So long as advertisers are spending rationally, which is a good first order assumption, then if ARPUs are rising then ads are becoming more effective.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, none of this is happening by accident. Facebook has been improving ad measurement, improving app speed, and pushing video to increase time-on-site. And that’s just what I read about today.
We see this amongst our partner companies too, many of which are now finding Facebook a much better platform than Google. That’s particularly true for those selling a novel product or service – people don’t know they want it so they aren’t searching for it, but well targeted ads Facebook can excite demand.
These are two great charts!
With IPOs like this European venture funds must be performing better, and that will bring more money into the market.
It has taken us a long time to get over the 1999/2000 bubble and build a sustainable ecosystem. It would be nice if we could expect a recognisable moment when we all know that we have achieved critical mass and crossed over into sustainability, but unfortunately things don’t work that way. The best we can hope for is to be able to look back retrospectively and say 20XX was the year when European venture finally came of age.
As the months go by the positive evidence is accumulating and I’m starting to think that 2014 or 2015 may be that year.
Steve Denning, one of the leading business thinkers pushing the business world to abandon the outdated idea of maximising shareholder value has published an interesting article on Forbes titled Why do managers hate agile?
That immediately made me think of my first experiences with agile as a board member of software and web startups shifting away from waterfall development to agile to improve productivity. On the one hand I was excited by the prospect of more efficient development and getting away from late delivery and poor quality software that I was used to, but on the other hand I struggled with the lack of predictability and commitment inherent in the agile process. As board members we needed to plan for the next round of fundraising, and that required knowing when product would be released and revenues could be expected to increase.
Reading Denning’s article I see that the trade off between predictability and productivity that I describe above is what companies everywhere are struggling with now agile as a methodology is being adopted across the enterprise and not just in development. Managers have generally been trained to deliver predictability and are generally held accountable for hitting their forecasts, making it hard for them to go down the agile route.
The good news for agile fans is that this battle is only going one way. As the world changes faster and faster the advantages of just-in-time agile methods and customer focus in generating quality output are getting greater and greater. Agile methods are also more attractive to the best employees.
That said, predictability is still important to shareholders and hence for companies looking to raise money to maximise growth. The net effect of this is to make the job of CEO and senior managers more difficult – they have to ‘manage’ self-organising teams and try to predict the output. That takes a high degree of trust and a thick skin to take the flack when things go wrong. Choosing shareholders who understand the trade-offs and can tell the difference between systemic poor performance and a blip will help.
I just read novelist Neil Gaiman’s Eight rules of writing. Numbers five and eight are priceless.
5. Remember: when people tell you something’s wrong or doesn’t work for them, they are almost always right. When they tell you exactly what they think is wrong and how to fix it, they are almost always wrong.
I love it! Generalising beyond writing, I would say trust what people have to say about feelings, but be careful with their predictions. Diagnoses sit somewhere in middle. We all know our own feelings, and don’t go wrong there very often, but if a subject is of great interest to us, as for example our company or it’s market might be, then most well meaning attempts to help will fall short because the would be helper has less understanding than we do. We must always be ready for people to call us on our blind spots though.
8. The main rule of writing is that if you do it with enough assurance and confidence, you’re allowed to do whatever you like. (That may be a rule for life as well as for writing. But it’s definitely true for writing.) So write your story as it needs to be written. Write it honestly, and tell it as best you can. I’m not sure that there are any other rules. Not ones that matter.
This I like because self-confidence is an entrepreneur’s greatest asset. That said I don’t think this applies totally to startups, which have to operate within the limits of commercial feasibility. The penultimate sentence is as important as the first though. Honest confidence is extremely powerful. When dishonesty creeps in confidence can quickly become arrogance.
The chart above is from the ever useful Criteo State of Mobile Commerce report.
It’s good to see UK shoppers turning to their phones to shop more than the rest of the western world because UK companies will innovate faster on mobile as a result. We already produce more than our fair share of ecommerce giants and so long as the UK shopper keeps adopting new technology faster than Europeans and Americans we will most likely keep doing so.