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broadstuff"broadstuff" - 5 new articles

  1. Predicting iPhone development via Moore's Law
  2. Apple invents watch to watch you
  3. Big Internet, Small Returns, Warm Data and Cold Water
  4. Ashya King & Parent Power via Social Media
  5. Nude Pictures hacked in Cloud shocker
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  8. Prior Mailing Archive

Predicting iPhone development via Moore's Law

iPhone 6 launched today, apparently the "Biggest Advancement" in iPhone history. In 2010 we made some predictions about iPhone 6 specs based on a Moore's Law progression (see chart above, written in 2010 - as a commentator notes, 2010 "Hot PC's" had gone up a few notches too by 2014), we thought it would be interesting to go back to that - we were estimating it would:

- Launch in 2014 (got that right)
- 4Ghz processor (actual apparently 25% faster than the 1 GHz processor in the iPhone 5)
- 2 Gb RAM (not yet known but unlikely to be 4Ghz)
- 256 GB Memory (currently only 128, same as iPhone 5)
- 1.2 kppi (currently at iPhone 4 levels, at c 330 ppi, but has a slightly bigger screen)

Now it could be that an "iPhone 6s" will come along with more oomph, we shall see, but right now its an iPhone 5+

It is a bit thinner, so chalk a semi-win for Moore there as its also longer so little change in actual volume, and the battery lasts c 20% longer than an iPhone 5 playing music - but its probably a bigger jump in reality as the iPhone 6 is feeding a bigger engine and doing more internal "added value" tasks.

Pricing is always a hard one to track with mobile phone deals, by our rough estimate its about 2/3 that of the initial IPhone 5 launch price, so maybe we shouldn't be too harsh about capability - you don't get a halving of the price AND a doubling of your capability every 2 years - but its mainly Android competition pushing the price down rather than a Moore's effect we reckon, that was much less a concern in 2012.

Now to be fair, we reset this prediction once iPhone 5 came out, but even applying Moore's Law to iPhone 5 would have predicted better than these iPhone 6 specs. But it is still interesting to look at rate of development by Moore's Law vs actual nonetheless over a number of cycles to see the rate of development. By our 2010 Moore's Law predictions, the new iPhone6 is actually more an iPhone 5 with "added value" lateral functionality rather than a new product cycle in capability. Certainly not the "biggest advancement" ever.

There is an iPhone 6Plus (bigger screen device) but it too is no further on than the 2012 Androd Nexus 4*

Whether the development cycle has slowed mainly due to a falling off of Moore's Law, or more due to price point pressure, is an interesting thought for the next 4 years.....

* Hat Tip James Cridland for that link

Apple invents watch to watch you

Today Apple unveiled the next iPhone (v 6), which pretty much follows our Moore's Law iPredictions, and a watch - Grauniad.

The Apple Watch will monitor health and fitness, tracking the wear’s movement, heart rate and activity with built-in sensors, feeding the information into Apple’s Health app for the iPhone and iPad, allowing review and analysis of the data.


Apple’s new contactless mobile wallet, Apple Pay, will also be available on the Apple Watch to enable users to pay for goods and services in the US using the smartwatch like a contactless credit card.

Most people stopped wearing watches when mobile phones became ubiquitous. But this is no ordinary watch though, it watches you - and sends the data on to Big Apple.

This is called progress, in the same way as the choice of U2 as the promo band..... perhaps the Police would have been better?

Every breath you take
Every move you make
Every bond you break
Every step you take
I'll be watching you

Big Internet, Small Returns, Warm Data and Cold Water

There is a new trend emerging, perhaps - these 2 posts from Nick Carr & Awedience blog's Chris Arnold are thought provoking.

Nick Carr:

We talk about Big Oil and Big Pharma and Big Ag. Maybe it’s time we started talking about Big Internet. That thought crossed my mind after reading a couple of recent posts. One was Scott Rosenberg’s piece about a renaissance in the ancient art of blogging. I hadn’t even realized that blogs were a thing again, but Rosenberg delivers the evidence. Jason Kottke, too, says that blogging is once again the geist in our zeit. Welcome back, world.

The other piece was Alan Jacobs’s goodbye to Twitter. Jacobs writes of a growing sense of disillusionment and disappointment with the ubiquitous microblogging platform:

“Big Twitter was great — for a while,” says Jacobs. “But now it’s over, and it’s time to move on.”

In essence, Nick argues the that the big, imepersonal, autobotted and analysed social mediascape is becoming counterproductive:

These trends, if they are actually trends, seem related. I sense that they both stem from a sense of exhaustion with what I’m calling Big Internet. By Big Internet, I mean the platform- and plantation-based internet, the one centered around giants like Google and Facebook and Twitter and Amazon and Apple. Maybe these companies were insurgents at one point, but now they’re fat and bland and obsessed with expanding or defending their empires. They’ve become the Henry VIIIs of the web. And it’s starting to feel a little gross to be in their presence.

So, yeah, I’m down with this retro movement. Bring back personal blogs. Bring back RSS. Bring back the fun. Screw Big Internet.

Now Nick is a fairly reliable curmudgeon, but much of his scepticism is based on hard analysis so this is an interesting observation. Nick is pretty good at setting current trends into historical aptterns, one cann imagine that big data driven SM may well go the way of pop-up Ads. (there is already a movement gaining momentum to limit how much user data can be picked up)

Map to that an interesting observation by Chris Brogan, who I've always seen as a "everything's rosy" kind of fellow, but note this piece from Awedience on the idea of Warm Data:

Have you ever seen that whole “we’ve got mountains of data on our customers” experience play out? In lots and lots of cases, most organizes aren’t really equipped to actually do anything with the data. And “big” data just means that there are mountains of information points that, in the right hands, can make interesting things happen.

I think what lots of us need is “warm” data. What “warm” means to me is “data that matters and can help the customer.” Christopher Lynn, who runs a lot of things at the Colonnade hotel in Boston knew Jacqueline and I were going to a Black Keys concert while staying there one night. We came back to our room to a CD of their music and a nice note. He used warm data to make my perception of the hotel and Chris’s dedication to guests that mattered to him very very high indeed.

If I were to pour cold water on this (as if...) I'd say this is just Personalised Data, reheated - and this message about the medium is a year or so old....but it's been striking a chord again recently and sort of fits in with Nick Carr''s observations. Awedience makes another interesting point, quoting Rob Hatch:

There’s a big counter-trend going on where people are pushing harder and harder to automate and dehumanize their use of communications tools like social media and email and the rest of the digital channel. Go ahead. Do that.

I’m going to work on using the best tools I can to build very human-minded communication and nurturing flows that promote very human interactions with prospective customers and other community members. I think that smart businesses will focus a lot more on understanding how these tools they can use can empower their opportunity to build stronger relationships with the people they serve.

Now, 2 tropes do not a trend make, but seems to me the Social Media market is starting to recognise a distinction between mass produced commodity SM and high value SM as a value proposition, not an interesting theoretical concept. The limits to "big" social media automation benefits may be approaching, perhaps. Which stands to raeson - any market eventually shakes out into a commodity type offering. midrange offerings, and more added value/one off offerings so its clear SM will too (and faster than we think, perhaps)....

Ashya King & Parent Power via Social Media

For those who are not aware of the unfolding story, this is a summary from Channel 4 News:

The parents of Ashya King spend another night in a Spanish prison, 300 miles from where their son is being treated for a brain tumour, as a petition to reunite them reaches over 110,000 signatures.

A judge in Spain ruled that Brett and Naghmeh King must be held [in custody] for up to 72 hours while the court considers whether to grant a British extradition request.

The couple, who were arrested in Spain after the five-year-old was taken from a UK hospital without doctors' consent, told the judge in Madrid they do not want to return to the UK.

The boy is being treated in a hospital in Malaga and his grandmother and brother have criticised the way his parents are being treated.

The family took him from Southampton General Hospital last Thursday and travelled to France with him and his six siblings before heading to the Costa del Sol in southern Spain. The couple's lawyer in Spain said in an interview with BBC's Radio 5 Live programme that they are preparing legal action against the hospital.

Bear in mind that in theory they have committed no crime that should trigger a Europeam Arrest Warrant either, yet one materialised astonishigly rapidly.

But that is the main story. However, there has been a very interesting secondary story to this, for those interested in Social Media. There was quite a lot of poor information disseminated at first by the "official sources" via mainstream media (for example unnecessary scare mongering about safety, and aspersions about the parents). The kindest conclusion one can come to was that there was initial confusion and now continuing uncertainty over what is permissable to divulge. The net effect was to paint a very negative picture of the parents for public consumption.

However, the parents used Social Media very well to get their side of the story across in the face of this mainstream narrative:

- The parents released a video on Youtube fairly soon after the story started running, contradicting the official media narrative. This largely removed control of the story from the "official" sources.
- Other members of the family have also used various types of social media to get their message across, which has resulted in theitr story also getting access to the "official" media - radio, TV, press etc - and taken seriously
- As a result, this story has become widespread on social and mainstream media
- As of c 1pm day UK time today, more than 110,000 people have signed an online petition demanding the child is reunited with his parents.

Clearly this will be an increasing trend - it's hardly new, after all - the medium may be the message, but with multiple mediums multiple messages can get out. But what the lesson is here is the high quality of the messaging that a fairly ordinary family is capable of today, and that the size of the "alternative medium" channels to spread it can trump the mainstream. Control of the message on the Old Media is a busted flush if these new channels pick up the story (If.....there are lkely many worthy cases that do not go viral, so its not a failsafe for the "little man" - but its a start)

Now there is probably information that the authorities cannot divulge, that would help explain their position and actions better, but right now they are coming off very badly by keeping quiet in this multi-medium model. Senior Government figures are now stepping in to halt the impending sh*tstorm before it gets fanned all over them, which will only increase the kicking these services get. Which points to the inevitable corollary to this event (all actions have reactions, 'tis the law....). If the services involved - medical, police, legal - did make available some of the confidential information they had, and it would help stop them inevitably being seen as the chumps in a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" scenario, they will be under increasing temptation - and pressure - to do so. I can imagine that currently mores of patient confidentiality may well shift to more of a "dump if provoked" process - i.e. data will be let out if the other party starts to refer to it.

You read it here first....

(Update - as predicted, the senior poiticos got involved, and are now busy scoopng up the plaudits...and more interestingly, the hospital concerned has published some of its notes of the medical situation in its defence. )


Nude Pictures hacked in Cloud shocker

Whoever could have predicted that naked pictures of famous people stuck up in the Cloud would ever be hacked and published. Surely not, I hear you say?

Well, in ths case it was an open secret the system was compromised- Business Insider:

The ability to gain access to Apple's iCloud accounts has been an open secret among users of porn message boards for years, with enterprising users charging others to "rip" accounts and share nude photos.

But even if it was not an open secret, from an information security point of view data in Cloud systems is a nightmare compared to data on your own systems. Consider the ways data can be compromised when shifted to the Cloud:

- Sent over public infrastructure
- Put in places that are known for the sort of data they hold, and how they hold it
- Multiple "Men in the Middle
- Huge commercial incentives for the data keeper and commercial partners to expoit it (and as we have pointed out before, their interests are seldom aligned with the data owner)

What could possibly go wrong?

Of course there is now much examination of the stable door post horse bolting, but it's a basic truism of data security that there are always more smart people trying to break in than people trying to keep them out, and putting one's precious private eggs in public baskets doesn't help matters. There shall be more of these attacks for some time. If you want to keep something private, the Cloud is not yet the place for it.

The Second Law of the Internet is still true - If you don't want private stuff made public, don't stick it on the Internet.

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