Tyler Cowen talks about the rise and fall of the Chinese economy: how they grew so fast, and why they're in trouble now.
I like Tyler's insight that decades of high growth distorted the assessment of the risk/return of new investment projects, which is distinct (but compatible) from a decline in the marginal productivity of capital.
John Authers has written another good column. It's about "what happens if rates never rise." Among many interesting things, he reminds us to watch profits (payrolls and GDP are secondary, really). He also walks us through the (increasingly plausible) scenario where the Fed doesn't raise rates at all, and the central bank needs to resort to QE to counter an economic slowdown.
He writes, in passing, something with disturbing implications:
The risk continues to be that investors at some point give up on monetary policy and its power to make a difference — and that would be bad for stocks. So rather than plan for a continued indiscriminate rally in US stocks, it is probably better to focus on those that can show some sustained pricing power, and on those that pay a decent yield.
That first sentence (emphasis mine) entails a mind-blowing possibility. What it the emperor has no clothes? What if the main (only?) effect of QE is through higher asset valuations? What if QE works because investors think it works and nothing else? What if investors wake up and decide that QE doesn't work?
Stephen Williamson wrote a fantastic post, where he bounds reasonable numbers for employment growth and the unemployment rate, in the U.S., in coming months.
-200k jobs added per month, which many observers find normal, is more than we can reasonably expect.
-Recent trends and the current level of labor force participation suggest that employment can't grow faster than 0.5% for too long. 200k jobs per month imply a 1.7% growth rate, given the current level of unemployment.
-The unemployment rate can't probably get much lower than 4.6%.
-Going forward, monthly employment growth should be closer to 60k (population growth) than the "normal" 200k.