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"Businomics Blog" - 3 new articles

  1. Good News for Job-Seekers; Employers Get Ready for More Quits
  2. One Down Quarter for the Economy Is Not a Recession
  3. Economic Forecast 2014-2015 on Video
  4. Search Businomics Blog
  5. Prior Mailing Archive

Good News for Job-Seekers; Employers Get Ready for More Quits

The Bureau of Labor Statistics just announced an increase in the number of job openings. Coming on the heels of last week's announcement that total employment had regained the level held before the recession, this is good news.

Job Openings

Employers, however, should expect the rate of voluntary quits to rise. That hasn't happened yet, but it likely will. Managers should look at my article from last year, 7 Employee Retention Strategies Your Company Must Have that appears on my blog.


One Down Quarter for the Economy Is Not a Recession

The rough rule of thumb is that a recession has two or more consecutive quarters of declining real GDP.* Why not just one quarter? We have a good example of why not just one quarter in the first quarter of 2014. The Bureau of Economic Analysis just revised its estimate of that quarter and it's negative: a decline of one percent from the preceding quarter.


Here's why this is NOT recessionary. Part of the decline was due to the bad weather in most of the country. Another part was an inventory swing. Business inventories had risen in the second half of last year, and such increases are often reversed in succeeding quarters. The two factors, weather and inventory adjustment, came together in one quarter, along with some weakness in foreign trade.

Looking forward, growth will be moderately better the rest of this year and decidedly better in 2015. More details on the outlook are on my article Economic Forecast 2014-2015.


* Data note: "real GDP" is the inflation-adjusted ("real") gross domestic product, the value of the goods and services produced in the United States. Data are available from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.


Economic Forecast 2014-2015 on Video

My recent presentation for clients of Northwest Investment Counselors is available in (edited) video on their website: under News & Events.

Permalinks: Part 1 and Part 2.



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