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"Businomics Blog" - 2 new articles

  1. Are We In Recession Now?
  2. The Presidency and the Economy
  3. Search Businomics Blog
  4. Prior Mailing Archive

Are We In Recession Now?

I often hear commentators saying that we are already in a recession. This could be the case because the data always come out with a time lag. The official arbiter of recessions, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the non-profit National Bureau of Economic Research, waits some months after data are released to evaluate whether a recession began.

However, it seems that whether we are in good times or bad, someone is claiming that a recession has already started. So I'm going to post the reports I hear, as an historical record of who thinks we're already in recession.

The first is Rauol Pal, speaking CNBC's Fast Money Show.

Also Mark Faber, on Bloomberg Business.

If you hear of others, would you please send them to me?



The Presidency and the Economy

I don't incorporate much politics into my economic forecasts. I'm no better than average at predicting electoral outcomes. Even if I knew who was going to win, I wouldn't know what that person would do as president. (I didn't expect Bush II to push for steel tariffs or a Medicare drug benefit; I didn't expect Obama to maintain war in the Middle East or domestic surveillance without warrants.) And finally, even if I knew who would win and what that president would try to do, I wouldn't know that Congress would go along.

That said, I try to keep my ear to the ground. The best way I've found is Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball. I got a lot out of his 10 Factors That Will Determine the Next President.


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